AGP Executive Report

Iran Tensions: The US is preparing for possible renewed strikes after the midterm elections, while Vice-President JD Vance has reportedly contacted a senior Iranian security official to revive talks. Gulf states have been warned to prepare for escalation, as Houthi attacks hit Saudi targets. Diplomatic Push: Qatar has proposed a seven-day framework for negotiations, and the UAE urged dialogue; Iran says it is open to talks. Israeli Politics: No bloc won a majority in Tuesday’s election, leaving Benjamin Netanyahu as caretaker prime minister while parties seek a coalition. Economic Fallout: Higher oil prices have strained regional budgets, widening Malaysia’s projected deficit as fuel subsidies rise. Returning Workers: Iloilo City has given cash aid and reintegration support to 64 Filipino workers and seafarers repatriated amid Middle East tensions.

Iran Tensions: The U.S. has warned Gulf allies to prepare for possible strikes on Iran after the November 3 midterms, though President Donald Trump has not made a final decision. Qatar and a Saudi-Turkish-Pakistani delegation are pursuing proposals to avert renewed fighting. Israel Election: Benjamin Netanyahu says he will seek to form a right-wing government, but the closely contested vote has left no clear majority and coalition talks lie ahead. Gulf Markets: Stocks were mixed after Yemen’s Houthis claimed a strike on Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery; Brent crude rose above $115 a barrel as investors weighed the threat to regional supplies. Arts and Culture: Doha’s Design Doha Prize named 20 finalists from more than 500 entries across the Middle East, North Africa and South Asia, with winners due to be announced November 7.

Israel’s Election: Record turnout produced no clear winner, with exit polls giving Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc 53 seats and the main opposition 49. Arab parties’ 18 seats could prove pivotal in coalition talks. Regional Diplomacy: Iran reiterated demands for sanctions relief and an end to the US naval blockade as Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey pressed for a path to de-escalation; oil prices eased on hopes for renewed talks. War’s Cost: The US military’s Iran war bill reached $47.1 billion by Oct. 16, a figure that excludes damage to bases and facilities. The Pentagon says it has used about 65% of its Patriot missile interceptors. Jordan Attack: Authorities arrested three suspects over a shooting at a church funeral in Karak that killed nine people and wounded at least 28.

Israel’s Election: Voters are deciding whether to oust Benjamin Netanyahu in the country’s first national election since the October 7 attacks. High turnout and a strong challenge from former military chief Gadi Eisenkot point to a close race, with coalition talks likely ahead. Netanyahu reportedly sought military preparations for possible strikes on Iran days before the vote, but the army chief warned against escalation. Regional Diplomacy: Iranian officials described talks with Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan as “very good,” as the three Mecca pact countries seek to ease the conflict. Iran’s security chief later met Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, while Qatar’s emir and Iran’s president met in Moscow to discuss ties and energy cooperation. Sudan’s War: Drone strikes killed 21 people at a market in Nyala and disrupted electricity across parts of eastern Sudan, according to medics and witnesses. Jordan’s Entrepreneurs: Orange Jordan wrapped up a year-long programme that supported 130 entrepreneurs with training and mentoring. Qatar’s Arts Scene: Art Basel Qatar announced 82 galleries for its 2027 edition and a new year-round programme to build collector ties and support the regional art market.

Israel’s Election: Israelis are voting in the first national election since the Oct. 7, 2023 attacks, with Benjamin Netanyahu’s hold on power at stake. The result could shape policy on Palestinians and regional ties. Regional Diplomacy: Iran hosted Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Türkiye for talks on security and the wider conflict; the four agreed to continue dialogue but announced no ceasefire or specific deal. Risk of Escalation: Reports say U.S. forces are positioned for possible strikes on Iranian military, nuclear and energy sites, though President Trump has not ordered an attack. West Bank: The UN warned Israel’s Hebron operation raises grave concerns of “ethnic cleansing,” after the municipality said 3,189 people had been forced from their homes. Economic Strain: Pakistan’s central bank raised its policy rate to 12%, citing Middle East tensions, higher energy costs and wheat supply disruptions. Qatar Culture: The National Museum of Qatar opened a major Giuseppe Penone exhibition, featuring 25 works and a new public sculpture planned for Doha.

Regional Diplomacy: Saudi, Turkish and Pakistani officials met Iran’s leaders in Tehran on Monday to seek de-escalation and discuss a regional security framework, as Houthi attacks heighten pressure on Saudi Arabia. The talks put the new Mecca defense pact to an early test. Israel’s Election: Israelis vote Tuesday in the first national election since October 7, 2023. Polls suggest a close race, while Gulf states are watching for signs of a shift in regional policy. West Bank: A UN-mandated commission accused Israeli forces of crimes against humanity, including “extermination,” in the occupied West Bank; Israel rejected the report. Separately, Israel’s assault in Hebron has displaced thousands, according to reports. Economic Strain: The IMF projects a 1.3% contraction this year across the Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan, as conflict disrupts energy supplies and drives up costs. Pakistan raised its benchmark interest rate to 12%. Culture: Sharjah’s International Film Festival for Children and Youth opened with 71 films from 38 countries, with Italy as guest of honour.

Regional Tensions: US intelligence warnings of alleged Iranian plots against American officials have prompted embassy staffing cuts and evacuations across the region, as Washington weighs further action and Tehran warns it will retaliate. Iranians interviewed by the Associated Press described preparing for renewed war. Saudi-Yemen Front: Saudi Arabia reopened Riyadh airport after reported Houthi missile and drone threats, raising concern over attacks on transport and energy sites and the security of the Bab al-Mandab shipping route. Economic Strain: Oil climbed above $117 a barrel amid fears of wider conflict; the IMF forecasts a 1.3% contraction across the Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan this year. Qatar’s Cultural Links: Qatar Museums opened “Beyti Beytak” at Doha’s Fahad bin Ali Palace, bringing together more than 40 practitioners to explore home, hospitality and belonging through architecture and design.

Iran-US Escalation: US intelligence warns that alleged Iranian plots targeting Americans abroad have advanced, prompting embassy staffing cuts. Tehran says it will retaliate if attacked, while reports say US commanders have prepared strike options. Gulf Security: Houthis and Saudi Arabia traded heavy strikes, with missiles reportedly targeting Saudi cities and infrastructure; Riyadh airport has partly reopened after a two-week shutdown. Oil Shock: Brent crude settled at $116.72 a barrel, its highest level in nearly six months, as fears of supply disruption mount. Diplomacy: Pakistan, Türkiye, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and four European nations urged dialogue on the US-Iran conflict, Palestine, Yemen and maritime security. UN chief António Guterres also arrived in Cairo for talks on Gaza, Sudan and Libya. West Bank and Jordan: Israeli forces displaced Palestinian families in Hebron and imposed closures. In Jordan, the death toll from a church attack rose to nine, as the king ordered a firm response.

Iran-US Tensions: Washington is weighing renewed strikes on Iran as U.S. intelligence chief Jay Clayton warns of advanced Iranian plots against Americans. The U.S. has reduced staffing at some Middle East missions and urged caution for travelers; Tehran has threatened retaliation if strikes resume. Regional Escalation: Houthis claimed missile and drone attacks on Saudi airports and oil sites as the Saudi-led coalition struck Yemen, heightening risks to energy infrastructure and shipping. Energy Shock: Brent crude topped $117 a barrel amid fears of fresh U.S. strikes, raising costs for oil-importing economies. West Bank: Israeli forces displaced about 250 Palestinian families in Hebron after an attack killed two Israeli soldiers. Jordan: King Abdullah ordered a forceful security response after a church funeral shooting killed nine people. Diplomacy and Trade: Qatar’s mediation remains a key channel for easing tensions, while Sri Lanka says it is unlikely to pursue new barter deals as its tea-for-oil arrangement with Iran nears completion.

Iran-US Escalation: US warships are preparing for possible renewed strikes on Iran, though no attack has been authorized. The buildup comes as US intelligence warns of advanced Iranian plots against Americans, prompting embassy staffing cuts and departures from Saudi Arabia. Tehran has vowed to keep US forces out of the Gulf. Diplomacy: Foreign ministers from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Türkiye, Egypt and four European countries urged dialogue and de-escalation at Istanbul talks. Oman, despite being hit by Iranian attacks, continues to mediate, guided by a policy of engagement with all sides. Gulf Environment: An offshore tanker oil spill has closed beaches in Ras Al Khaimah, Umm Al Quwain and Sharjah as UAE teams assess the damage and contain the leak. Jordan Attack: King Abdullah ordered an “iron fist” response after gunmen killed eight people and wounded 40 at a church funeral in Karak. Energy Shock: Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia helped push Brent crude above $117 a barrel, raising fresh concerns about regional supply disruptions.

Iran Escalation: U.S. intelligence warns Iran’s plots against American personnel have advanced, prompting staffing cuts at four Middle East embassies and departures from Saudi Arabia. Donald Trump also threatened fresh strikes if Tehran rejects a deal. Energy Shock: Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and an oil spill off Umm Al Quwain sent Brent crude to $116.72 a barrel, its highest close since April, raising fears of wider supply disruption. Diplomacy: Foreign ministers from eight European and regional powers met in Istanbul to seek ways to prevent further escalation and protect shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb. Stranded Pilgrims: More than 600 Karnataka Umrah pilgrims are stuck in Mecca and Medina after flights were suspended; the state has urged India to arrange their safe return. Palestinian Heritage: Families face attacks, restrictions and crop theft during the olive harvest, a season deeply tied to community life and generations of care for the land.

Energy Shock: Brent crude climbed to about $115 a barrel after Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia raised fears of wider supply disruption; the UAE also reported an oil spill off Umm Al Quwain. Saudi Aramco evacuated its Dhahran headquarters. Regional Diplomacy: Foreign ministers from Pakistan, Türkiye, Saudi Arabia and Egypt met European counterparts in Istanbul to discuss the US-Iran conflict, Yemen, the Palestinian issue and safe passage through key waterways. Economic Outlook: The IMF projects a 1.3% contraction across the Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan in 2026, as conflict and disrupted trade weigh on growth. Egypt’s Energy Push: Scatec and the EBRD launched a US$221 million platform to finance solar, wind and battery projects, aiming to strengthen Egypt’s energy security and reduce reliance on imported fuel. Israel and Gaza: Israeli forces said they thwarted an attack in the West Bank, while an Israeli strike killed at least one person in Gaza, amid a tense run-up to Israel’s election.

Iran-US-Israel Tensions: Reports say Washington and Israel have drawn up plans for renewed strikes on Iran after the US midterms, while Tehran says seven tankers were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz and has threatened US bases. The reports have pushed oil above $110 a barrel and raised fears of a wider conflict. Saudi Arabia Under Fire: Houthi attacks have killed civilians at Dammam airport, prompted Saudi Aramco staff to leave its Dhahran headquarters and intensified pressure on the kingdom’s defences. Houthi Sanctions: The European Parliament urged the EU to list the group as a terrorist organization and freeze its assets; the measure still requires approval by EU governments. Economic Fallout: The IMF forecasts a 1.3% contraction across the Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan in 2026, with Gulf oil exporters especially exposed to disruption in energy production and shipping.

Gulf Escalation: Houthi attacks on Saudi targets have rattled markets and driven Brent crude above $112 a barrel, its highest since May. Iran says seven vessels were struck or hit mines near the Strait of Hormuz; the claims have not been independently confirmed. Washington has ordered some diplomats and families to leave Saudi Arabia. War Risks: Reports say the US and Israel are weighing renewed strikes on Iran after November’s midterms, while Tehran has threatened US bases if Washington helps ships through the strait. Economic Fallout: The IMF warns the conflict is battering regional economies, forecasting a 4.8% contraction for Gulf states in 2026. Pakistan faces rising inflation as energy costs climb. Regional Shifts: A Saudi-Turkish-Pakistani defense pact commits members to treat an attack on one as an attack on all, though it has not been activated. Maersk says it aims to restore all Suez Canal services by March 2027.

Saudi Security: A drone attack at King Fahd International Airport killed one person and injured eight, while a separate strike near an oil facility reportedly killed two. Washington ordered non-essential embassy staff and families to leave Saudi Arabia as Houthi attacks intensify. Strait of Hormuz: A projectile hit a Kuwait-flagged tanker carrying 21 Indian seafarers; all crew were safe, but the incident adds to growing risks for Gulf shipping. Iran Tensions: The New York Times reports the US and Israel have drawn up plans for possible strikes on Iran after the November 3 midterms, though President Trump has not approved an operation and diplomacy continues. Diplomacy and Markets: Qatar and France pledged closer defence, security and energy cooperation during President Macron’s Doha visit. A former Tunisian diplomat urged Qatar to use its mediation role to prevent a wider war. Brent crude climbed toward $110 a barrel amid fears of further supply disruptions.

Hormuz Shipping: A vessel caught fire after an unidentified projectile struck it off Oman near the Strait of Hormuz; its crew were safe. Another tanker was hit off Iraq a day earlier, as attacks on shipping push Brent crude above $110. Iran Talks: Tehran says it will not send enriched uranium abroad, keeping the nuclear dispute at the center of stalled US-Iran ceasefire negotiations. Yemen: The Houthis claimed a missile strike on a Saudi-linked position in Aden, the third attack there in a week; a day earlier, a strike hit the presidential compound, though Yemen’s prime minister and cabinet survived. Oman Diplomacy: King Charles praised Sultan Haitham’s efforts to help reopen Hormuz during the sultan’s state visit to Britain, highlighting Muscat’s role as a mediator between Washington and Tehran.