AGP Executive Report

West Bank Violence: Zionist settlers burned 7 mosques and desecrated 40 others since January, with new attacks reported in Nablus and Tulkarm amid UN warnings of record settler violence. US-Iran Diplomacy & Markets: The US paused further strikes as talks with Iran gained “space,” helping oil slide and lifting global risk sentiment, while negotiations around Strait of Hormuz transit remain in focus. Strait of Hormuz Push: Oman launched a diplomatic push to secure a political agreement for navigation and supply-chain flow through the chokepoint, contacting Iran and regional states. Energy Shock Economics: Middle East conflict pressures are still feeding into inflation and fuel costs, with markets reacting to shifting expectations for oil and rates. Philippines Policy Response: President Marcos used his fifth SONA to propose tax relief for workers and small firms, citing the Middle East-driven cost pressures, alongside aid funds for communities affected by the crisis. UAE Digital Push: The UAE’s e-invoicing rollout gains momentum as firms move to comply with the Ministry of Finance framework. Oxfam Language Shift: Oxfam formally rebrands its regional platform from “MENA” to “SWANA,” saying programs and commitments stay the same. Oman/Regional Trade Risk: Chabahar Port’s prospects face added uncertainty as US-Iran tensions and sanctions/regulatory risks complicate investment.

Iran-War Diplomacy: Mediators backed by Qatar and Pakistan say progress is being made to restart US-Iran talks as attacks remain paused and vessel transit through the Strait of Hormuz stays the key sticking point. Energy Markets: Oil and Brent slid after the pause, easing inflation fears and lifting regional stocks, but analysts warn the market is now focused on how long supply buffers can hold if disruptions return. US-Iran Fallout: Pentagon figures put US wounded in the Iran war above 600, while debate grows over depleted munitions and what Washington can still do. West Bank Violence: Israeli settlers set fire to two mosques in the occupied West Bank amid renewed clashes that have left multiple people dead. Philippines Domestic Policy: President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. used his SONA to push tax relief (raising the income-tax threshold to ₱350,000), expand social safety nets, and propose revisiting nuclear energy as Middle East-linked fuel and inflation pressures bite. Lebanon Sovereignty Test: Pilot zones in southern Lebanon begin as Lebanese forces deploy after Israeli withdrawals, aiming to restore state authority and reduce armed-group control. UAE Business & Travel: flydubai resumes Dubai–Budapest flights and a UAE-linked partnership targets hyperscale data centres, underscoring continued regional investment in digital infrastructure.

Philippines Politics & Economy: President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. delivers his fifth State of the Nation Address amid rising public pressure to cut corruption, curb food prices, and create jobs, with lawmakers pushing for concrete institutional reforms. Tax Relief Push: The House ways and means committee plans a “comprehensive review” of personal income tax brackets to restore purchasing power as inflation stays sticky. Middle East Conflict & Energy Shock: A US pause in strikes against Iran has not stopped the wider spillover—Houthis hit Saudi targets and Iran-linked incidents raise fears of further disruption to key shipping routes, keeping oil near $100 and feeding inflation worries across the region. West Bank Violence: Israeli settlers set fire to mosques in the occupied West Bank after a deadly clash near Tal, as Palestinian officials warn violence is escalating. Markets Watch: Investors weigh Fed rate risk as Middle East tensions lift oil and complicate the inflation outlook. Qatar Finance: QNB Group opens a new premium QNB First branch in Msheireb Downtown Doha, expanding its luxury banking footprint.

US-Iran Pause and Escalation Risks: The US has paused airstrikes on Iran after nearly two weeks, while Iran says it has halted retaliatory attacks against US allies; the lull is tied to concerns over dwindling munitions and fears of a wider regional war, with Houthis still striking Saudi targets and the Strait of Hormuz remaining a key pressure point. Caspian Sea Tensions: Iran condemned a Ukrainian strike on an Iranian commercial vessel in the Caspian, warning it will defend its interests, as the incident raises questions about whether the Middle East conflict is spilling into new maritime arenas. Markets Watch: Analysts flag West Asia conflict, oil moves, and the Fed’s rate decision as the main drivers of global volatility, with energy prices feeding inflation worries. Energy and Trade: Algeria’s revived Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline push highlights how African routes are being positioned as Europe’s fallback amid shipping disruptions. Local Growth and Tech: Qatar’s Uniqus Consultech opens in Doha as it expands GCC advisory work, while Amman is recognized for zero-emission buses in UITP’s 2026 report. Culture and Society: A local woman in Iran shares her faith journey, and Berlin Pride was rocked by a deadly car-ramming attack as police hunt a suspect.

Middle East Security: The US paused overnight strikes on Iran for the first time in nearly two weeks, but the wider conflict is still spreading as Houthis fire on Saudi targets and Iran accuses Ukraine of attacking an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea. Red Sea & Hormuz Pressure: Houthis claim missile and drone attacks on Saudi Arabia tied to airstrikes in Yemen’s Hodeida, raising fresh alarms for Red Sea shipping even as Gulf tensions keep energy markets jumpy. Diplomacy & Alliances: Trump says Netanyahu will visit Washington next week, with White House talks expected to focus on Iran and regional security. UNESCO Heritage: UNESCO inscribed a West Bank site (Sebastia) and Lebanese castles on the World Heritage List, also placing them on the World Heritage in Danger list despite Israeli opposition. Regional Economy Shock: Escalating Middle East fighting is pushing up fuel costs and prices, with analysts warning the disruption could widen beyond key chokepoints. Local Innovation in Kuwait: Kuwait’s Soof Wool Mill won a 2026 MENA Innovative Energy Project Award for turning local wool into a more sustainable, energy-efficient industry.

US-Iran Escalation: The U.S. has expanded strikes deeper into Iran, hitting bridges and infrastructure after a brief June ceasefire collapsed, while Iran continues targeting U.S. strongholds around the Gulf and commercial shipping near the Strait of Hormuz. Regional Diplomacy: Pakistan is exploring ways to revive stalled U.S.-Iran talks, with China encouraging the push, as Yemen’s Houthis reinforce pressure on Saudi Arabia. Nuclear Deal Fallout: Trump’s Saudi nuclear cooperation deal is being portrayed as a trigger for a wider arms race, with the Abraham Accords condition adding fresh uncertainty to Middle East nonproliferation plans. UAE Education: UAE school leaders say they’re preparing for the new academic year despite Iran-war disruptions, including remote learning and some student relocations. Cultural Heritage: UNESCO added six ancient Comoros medinas to the World Heritage List, spotlighting living towns in need of preservation. Business & Society: Canva says no formal PIA partnership is in place for a Pakistan-focused design competition, while Saudi PIF signed a deal with the U.S. Exim Bank worth up to $15bn.

US-Iran War Escalation: US missiles hit targets across Iran as Trump warns of “major military punishment,” while Iran fires at US bases in nearby Arab states and warns of strikes on US-linked sites. Red Sea Shipping Shock: Saudi-led coalition strikes Yemen’s Hodeida after Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers; Houthis also threaten a naval blockade, raising fears of renewed chokepoint disruption. Travel & Security Alerts: The US issues warnings to Americans across the Middle East about possible flight cancellations and airspace closures amid rising tensions. Energy & Inflation Pressure: Oil pushes back above $100 and fuel prices jump again; diesel and gasoline are set for further increases in parts of the region as supply risks mount. Diplomacy Attempts: Pakistan explores resuming stalled US-Iran talks with China’s push, while China urges renewed negotiations after talks between Wang Yi and Iran’s foreign minister. Nuclear Deal Politics: Trump says Saudi Arabia must join the Abraham Accords for a US civilian nuclear pact to move forward, keeping nonproliferation concerns in focus. Regional Economy & Trade: UAE finalises CEPA with Canada and PIF signs an MoU with the US Exim Bank worth up to $15bn, while Morocco’s growth accelerates on World Bank data and new battery investment plans.

Middle East Escalation: Explosions and a drone crash near the U.S.-hosted Erbil base in northern Iraq triggered temporary flight disruptions as Iran-U.S. strikes entered a 13th night, with Iran also claiming new drone attacks on U.S. facilities in Bahrain, Jordan and Kuwait. Energy Shock & Markets: Oil surged back above $100 a barrel on renewed Middle East supply fears, feeding inflation worries and rattling global stocks; copper edged up while investors weighed growth risks. US-Iran Politics: In Washington, Congress advanced competing war-powers moves, with the House again urging an end to the Iran war while the Senate fell short of a binding halt. Finance Fallout in Palestine: Israeli banks Hapoalim and Discount plan to cut correspondent banking links with Palestinian banks, raising fears for payments and trade. Regional Diplomacy: China and ASEAN called for a lasting Middle East settlement and deeper energy cooperation, warning the region’s heavy Middle East oil dependence leaves it exposed. Trade Pressure: New U.S. forced-labor tariffs hit dozens of partners, adding strain for exporters and SMEs across the region. Business & Infrastructure: SLB reported solid Q2 results and is positioning for AI data-center demand and Hormuz-related opportunities; Djibouti’s Tadjourah Port gets a modernization MoU with Tiryaki Agro.

US-Saudi nuclear deal in doubt: President Trump says the agreement is “totally subject” to Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords, a condition not previously disclosed—raising fresh alarm in Washington and across the region. US-Iran war powers clash: The US House backed a resolution to curb Trump’s Iran war powers, while the Senate blocked a similar move as airstrikes continue. Red Sea disruption: Houthis enforced a blockade on Saudi Arabia and struck two Saudi oil tankers, pushing Brent above $100 and tightening global shipping and supply routes. Markets feel the shock: Bond yields jumped, lifting borrowing costs; mortgage rates climbed toward the highest levels in months as oil-driven inflation fears returned. Travel hit in the Gulf: Several Gulf flights were cancelled or suspended, and Bahrain faced updated UK travel warnings amid regional tensions. Gaza food insecurity warning: UN-linked reporting says conditions improved but remain at crisis levels, with gains fragile to any aid disruption. Regional connectivity: Air Peace and Etihad signed an interline pact to expand travel links between Nigeria, West/Central Africa and the Middle East via Abu Dhabi.

US-Iran Escalation: The US carried out a 12th night of strikes on Iran, warning it will hit a bridge or power plant each time Iran attacks ships in the Strait of Hormuz, as both sides target civilian infrastructure and shipping fears return. Red Sea Shipping Shock: Iran-aligned Houthis claimed attacks on Saudi oil tankers and declared a naval blockade near Bab al-Mandab, adding pressure to already strained energy routes. Oil Prices Surge: Brent pushed toward $100 as renewed Middle East conflict and Hormuz disruption concerns rattled global markets, lifting inflation worries and weighing on regional stocks. Nuclear Deal Fallout: Washington signed a landmark nuclear cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia, drawing alarm in Israel over proliferation risks and raising questions about oversight. Regional Diplomacy: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Asian allies they won’t be abandoned as he met regional counterparts amid the Middle East crisis. UK Travel Warning: Britain urged nationals to avoid non-essential travel to Bahrain and Kuwait and said flight cancellations and airspace closures are likely as security deteriorates. Iraq-Iran Energy Talks: Iraqi PM Ali Al-Zaidi arrived in Tehran for energy and regional discussions, including keeping Iranian gas flowing to Iraq’s power sector. Local Impact: Dubai launched “Invite” benefits for residents to boost tourism as visitor numbers plunge amid the war-linked downturn.

US-Iran Escalation: The U.S. carried out a 12th straight night of strikes on Iran as Trump warned it would “destroy ONE BRIDGE OR POWER PLANT” for each attack in the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran vowed “eye for an eye” responses—raising fresh fears for shipping and energy prices. Nuclear Diplomacy: Washington signed a 30-year civilian nuclear cooperation deal with Saudi Arabia, giving a pathway to enrich fuel and sparking alarm in Israel and debate in Congress over safeguards and oversight. Lebanon-Israel Talks: Lebanon’s flag-planting in a southern town was framed as the start of a US-backed withdrawal, but doubts persist over whether Israel will actually move and whether Hezbollah will accept the framework. Red Sea Shipping Risk: Yemen’s Houthis claimed attacks on Saudi oil tankers and a blockade, prompting Pakistan to warn it may use force to protect its maritime interests. UK Travel Warning: Britain temporarily withdrew diplomatic staff from Iran and urged citizens to avoid travel, citing unpredictable security and limited consular help. Gulf Digital Push: Dubai’s DMCC launched a cyber security hub and Digital Dubai teamed up with Emirates Group to expand shared digital platforms, as the UAE accelerates agentic AI readiness across government services. Aviation & Industry: Flynas expanded its Airbus orderbook to grow long-haul and Middle East routes, while markets stayed jittery on Middle East-driven oil moves ahead of major earnings.

US-Iran Tensions: The latest round of fighting and strikes has kept the region on edge, with the U.S. issuing fresh worldwide security and travel warnings for Americans as escalation risks rise. Energy Shock Watch: Oil prices eased after mediation hopes, but Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis said they will impose a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia—raising fears of fresh supply disruption. Regional Diplomacy: ASEAN foreign ministers met in Manila and warned that renewed hostilities are undermining mediation efforts, with Strait of Hormuz risks feeding inflation and growth worries across Southeast Asia. Travel Advisories: Moldova urged citizens to avoid nonessential travel to the Middle East and warned of airspace restrictions and possible flight disruptions. Business & Trade: Malaysia’s Hyrax Oil signed deals to expand transformer fluids and technical services across Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam. MENA Health Dealmaking: Recce Pharmaceuticals advanced diabetic foot infection programs and is pursuing a licensing deal for its topical gel across Saudi Arabia, the GCC, Egypt, Algeria and Morocco. Auto Exports: China’s passenger vehicle exports stayed strong in Jan–May 2026, with the UAE among key destinations and Brazil leading overall.

Israel-Gaza: Save the Children says at least 19 Palestinian children have been killed in July so far, including four in an overnight Gaza strike that reportedly hit a residential building. Israel-Lebanon diplomacy: Lebanese President Joseph Aoun is set to visit the White House, with adviser Massad Boulos calling it a rare chance to implement a new Israel-Lebanon framework agreement “first since 1949.” US-Iran spillover: A US soldier died in Iraq during a controlled detonation of an Iranian drone; separately, four drones were shot down near the US consulate in Erbil. Red Sea shipping risk: Houthis have declared a naval blockade affecting Bab el-Mandeb, raising fears of fresh oil-route disruptions as the Strait of Hormuz remains tense. Oil and inflation pressure: Markets react to renewed Middle East escalation, with oil pushing higher and analysts warning fuel and inflation impacts could linger. Air defense tech: MBDA unveiled a mobile counter-drone system combining its CMI interceptor with ASRAAM at Farnborough. Humanitarian fallout: UN agencies warn renewed hostilities are driving civilian harm and infrastructure damage across the region, with hunger risks rising.

Middle East War & Energy: Iran escalated attacks across the region, with Bahrain and Jordan reporting intercepted missiles and drones, while the Houthis warned of a blockade of Saudi ports—raising fresh fears for oil and shipping through key chokepoints. Regional Diplomacy: ASEAN foreign ministers met in Manila and voiced “serious concern” over renewed US-Iran hostilities, urging an immediate halt to attacks and warning of knock-on damage to energy supplies, trade, and food security. Travel Warnings: The US State Department issued another security alert, telling Americans to expect possible flight cancellations, airspace closures, and disruptions as US interests and overseas diplomatic sites face heightened risk. Gulf Energy Investment: ADNO C moved ahead with a $6.2bn push for its Umm Shaif gas cap project, targeting more than 600 million scfd of gas capacity by 2030. Lebanon Talks: A US-mediated Lebanon-Israel agreement points to gradual implementation via pilot zones and a trilateral coordination group, aiming to set conditions for eventual redeployment and return. Business in Iraq: PepsiCo signed deals to expand manufacturing with local partners BSDC and GICO, linking capacity growth with farming support and jobs. Food Security: UN reporting said Africa now has the highest number of people facing hunger, even as global hunger fell for a third straight year.

US-Iran Escalation: The Pentagon said three more U.S. service members were killed as the conflict with Iran deepened, bringing the death toll to 17, while Trump vowed Iran will “pay many times over” and CENTCOM reported a ninth straight night of strikes. Energy Shock: Renewed fighting around the Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent to a one-month high and sent U.S. pump prices back above $4 a gallon, threatening to undo recent inflation relief. Red Sea Disruption: Yemen’s Houthis declared a maritime embargo on Saudi Arabia, and Saudi crude loadings through Bab Al Mandeb fell sharply, raising fears for shipping and fuel flows. Regional Spillover: Air France extended its Beirut flight suspension and paused Riyadh and Dubai services amid rapidly evolving security concerns. Policy Watch: Sterling Asset Management said Nigeria’s central bank is likely to keep a cautious, data-dependent stance, citing easing inflation but warning that renewed Middle East risks and pre-election liquidity could limit rate cuts. Local Economy Pressure: In the U.S., drivers in states like Idaho and North Carolina reported renewed pain at the pump as crude volatility feeds into household budgets.

US-Iran Escalation: The U.S. carried out a ninth straight night of strikes on Iran, expanding targets beyond the Gulf and hitting areas including Bushehr, as Iran retaliated across the region—raising fresh fears for Gulf shipping and civilian infrastructure. Oil & Inflation Pressure: Brent pushed above $90 a barrel and U.S. gas prices climbed back over $4, while diesel price expectations for August shifted upward amid Strait of Hormuz disruption concerns. Regional Spillover: Reports point to attacks affecting desalination and power facilities, with Kuwait and elsewhere hit in retaliation—fueling worries about water shortages and broader economic strain. Markets React: Stocks in Asia slid on the renewed Middle East risk premium, while investors also weighed inflation and rate outlooks. Human Cost: Aid groups and local reporting highlight worsening food security and malnutrition risks tied to the Iran war’s knock-on effects. Business Moves: Kamada announced a three-year $50m plasma supply deal, and UAE’s Sphere Abu Dhabi secured major design and supervision roles as entertainment investment continues.