AGP Executive Report

Strait of Hormuz & Markets: Iran-Oman shipping talks and US-Iran optimism are lifting European equities to record highs, but analysts warn the deal could still reshape who controls Gulf transit and keep oil-price swings alive. Security & Shipping: Saudi Arabia is bracing for coordinated attacks by Iraqi militias working with Iran-backed Houthis, as the conflict threatens to widen and disrupt tanker routes. US-Iran Diplomacy: Trump says the Iran war will end “pretty soon” and points to progress on Hormuz negotiations, while Iran vows a “crushing response” to threats. Energy Costs & Daily Life: Middle East tensions are still feeding fuel-price pressure—UK reports rising fuel theft as pump prices surge, while Ottawa drivers see short-term drops tied to Hormuz headlines. Cyber & Aviation: A new Kaspersky warning urges aviation groups to harden defenses after Mirage Kitten malware targeting networks across the Middle East and Africa. Business & Tech in the Gulf: Ooredoo expands AI compute ambitions via a major Zankore investment, and Kuwait’s Souq Sharq signs on for an 8.77MW solar project. Regional Economy Watch: Bahrain’s NBB CEO Usman Ahmed makes Forbes’ Top 100 CEOs list, while Cyprus construction shows resilience but faces uncertainty from renewed regional escalation.

Strait of Hormuz Diplomacy: Iran and the U.S. are reportedly nearing a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with talks also involving Oman—though safe passage and security details remain uncertain as shipping all but stalls. Gulf Security & Human Cost: Rights groups condemned an Israeli strike in south Lebanon that killed journalist Amal Khalil as a “war crime,” while Lebanon reported renewed Israeli strikes amid renewed hostilities. Iran Under Pressure: Iranians say economic pressure is forcing daily trade-offs on food, transport, and basic needs as U.S. “maximum pressure” tightens. Markets Watch: Oil held around $83 after Hormuz headlines, while investors stayed cautious on broader Middle East risk; UK construction showed early stabilization signs. Food Security: FAO is seeking $38m to protect Afghanistan’s 2027 wheat harvest, warning it’s an affordability crisis driven by higher fertilizer prices linked to the Middle East conflict. Tech & Industry: Qatar-backed Ooredoo, Nvidia, and Nokia unveiled a multi-billion-dollar AI compute platform targeting Southeast Asia, while Kuwait ordered closure of the only Iranian school after repeated attacks.

Strait of Hormuz & oil prices: Markets tracked fresh hopes for a deal as Iran and Oman move toward a shipping-route arrangement, while US officials warn of possible escalation—keeping energy prices jumpy and feeding inflation fears. Cost of living & fuel support: In the Philippines, the government extended Middle East-linked fuel relief for public-transport drivers, raising the discount to P12/liter from Aug. 15. Inflation watch: The Philippines’ July inflation eased to 6.2% as transport costs slowed, though the central bank says it’s ready to act if prices don’t cool. Food prices: Thailand’s trade office warned prepared-food prices are set to rise further as fuel costs and some vegetable prices climb amid El Niño effects. Agriculture pressure: Fiji sugar farmers urged higher cane prices after PM Sitiveni Rabuka acknowledged global competition and Middle East conflict pressures. Regional business & tech: Qatar Development Bank backed efficient AI firm Multiverse Computing to set up Doha as a regional HQ, signaling continued MENA investment in AI. Kuwait healthcare ties: Kuwait launched a Mayo Clinic training platform to transfer medical know-how and strengthen health diplomacy.

Strait of Hormuz & regional security: Markets and policymakers are watching renewed talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with oil hovering around $80 as shipping risks and deal uncertainty linger. UN human rights: Iran’s UN rights chief says executions have surged since March, warning of fair-trial failures and deaths used to “instil fear.” Iraq economy under pressure: Iraq’s oil-export disruption linked to Hormuz closures is reportedly delaying public salaries, raising fears of wider fiscal strain. Energy & defense supply chain: A US war-game analysis flags high-purity aluminum supply as a vulnerability, with the UAE singled out as a key source for US defense needs. Middle East-linked inflation: India’s RBI held rates at 5.25% while assessing whether Middle East-driven oil volatility will spread into broader inflation. Transport cost relief (Philippines): Manila raised fuel discounts for jeepney and UV Express drivers to P12/liter from Aug. 15, citing Middle East conflict impacts. Tourism & business signals: Türkiye reported 25.8m visitors in H1 2026 with revenues steady despite regional tensions; UAE non-oil growth and PMI improvements also pointed to resilience.

Strait of Hormuz Diplomacy: Iran and Oman say they’ve made progress on a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with ships entering via an Iranian-controlled route and exiting via Oman, while any final pact is linked to lifting a US blockade on Iran’s ports—fueling hopes of de-escalation. Markets & Energy: Oil slid as deal optimism spread; Brent fell below $80 and Wall Street hit record highs, while big oil profits stayed elevated amid the wider Middle East disruption. Regional Security: Saudi Arabia is reportedly using Oman-mediated talks to contain renewed Houthi pressure, while keeping military options ready to protect Red Sea oil exports. Gaza Politics: Netanyahu says Israel won’t withdraw from current Gaza lines until Hamas is completely disarmed, adding friction to a US-backed disarmament plan. Cyber Threats: Bahrain saw a drop in DDoS share, but MENA attacks surged overall, driven mainly by politically motivated hacktivists. Local Economy Pressure: Mozambique warned of a new fuel shortage wave tied to Middle East-linked supply risks around Hormuz. UAE Business: Lockheed Martin seeks more defence work in the UAE, emphasizing local partnerships and technology development.

Strait of Hormuz Talks: Iran and Oman are nearing an agreement to reopen Hormuz shipping, with mine-clearing in the strait and a lane that would give Iran access via its side—though any deal still needs US approval. Maritime Risk: With about 1,500 ships reportedly stuck since the shutdown, biofilm and marine organisms are building up on hulls, raising fears of invasive species spreading once traffic resumes. Energy Prices & Policy: Indonesia’s president ordered subsidized fuel prices to stay put despite Middle East-driven oil volatility, while South Africa’s wheat farmers face the smallest crop in nearly a century as costs tied to the conflict bite. Corporate Earnings: BP posted a second-quarter profit more than doubling to about $5.7bn on the “war bonus,” while Bayer returned to profit as legal charges eased. Cyber Security: IBM says the average data breach cost in the Middle East hit $8m in 2026, with AI-enabled attacks driving higher losses. Tech & Industry: ADNOC is rolling out AI to improve rig operations, and Hoymiles expanded its solar-plus-storage partnership across the Gulf. Evacuation Planning: Malaysia is tracking 21,427 citizens across 14 conflict-affected countries and preparing evacuation plans if security worsens.

Iran-US Diplomacy: Trump says talks with Iran are under way and calls it Tehran’s “last chance,” while Iran denies negotiations and insists any Strait of Hormuz discussions are with Oman—leaving diplomacy fragile and the region on edge. Strait of Hormuz Tensions: Trump claims the strait is “completely controlled” by the US Navy, as Tehran maps a temporary shipping corridor with Oman, raising fresh uncertainty for global energy routes. Energy Prices & Inflation Spillover: South Korea’s inflation cooled to a three-month low as oil prices eased, but officials warn Middle East war risks remain; across Asia, fuel, flights and food could cost more as energy shocks feed through. Oil Majors Under Pressure: Trump blasts Chevron and Exxon for record profits tied to the Iran war-driven supply squeeze, while the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve keeps falling. Local Economic Signals: UK business confidence slips in July as costs stay high and revenue expectations weaken; Pakistan’s manufacturing PMI improves on domestic demand, though geopolitical risks cloud the outlook. Qatar Tech & Tourism: Qatar’s Hayya platform wins a Stevie Award for government technology innovation, and the Qatar Toy Festival expands into a bigger immersive family destination. Aviation & Trade: FTAI expands CFM56 maintenance partnerships in Egypt and Indonesia, and Amadeus reports solid H1 results despite Middle East disruption to air traffic.

Iran-US diplomacy: Trump said talks to wind down the Iran war will begin Monday after he paused planned “massive” strikes, while Tehran denies any US negotiation and says it’s discussing a temporary Hormuz shipping route with Oman. Energy shockwatch: Markets reacted to the de-escalation talk with oil sliding and the UK facing recession risk if Hormuz stays shut, as global shipping limits keep energy prices volatile. Regional escalation risk: Yemen’s Houthis resumed attacks on Saudi-linked targets and announced a Red Sea blockade, prompting Saudi Arabia to form a defense coalition to protect shipping. Gaza humanitarian strain: Israeli strikes killed at least 17 in Gaza over the weekend, as heat worsens conditions for displaced Palestinians. Business & policy ripple effects: The World Bank urged the Philippines to speed power reforms, warning Middle East-driven oil price spikes expose the country’s energy dependence; BPI also flagged higher provisioning tied to the conflict. MENA tech & health: Qatar’s Hayya e-visa platform won a Stevie award, while JIC Ventures backed Czech med-AI firm Carebot for broader clinical rollout.

US-Iran Tensions: Trump said he will hold off on fresh strikes on Iran if a deal is rapidly reached, pointing to a possible “immediate, complete and total” reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and an end to Iran’s nuclear threat, after calls with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and pressure from Gulf allies. Strait of Hormuz: Iran says talks with Oman on a new Hormuz route are in “final stages,” keeping energy markets on edge as shipping and fuel costs remain vulnerable. Gaza: Israeli strikes killed at least 15–17 Palestinians across Gaza as ceasefire/disarmament talks face resistance, with Islamic Jihad reportedly shifting toward acceptance of a framework. Migration/Europe: Italy suspended its Schengen free-travel pact with Spain for a month after 60,000 migrants surged into Ceuta, escalating border politics across the EU. Philippines Economy & Inflation: Growth is forecast to slow sharply to about 2.7% in Q2 as Middle East-driven inflation squeezes households, while economists split on July inflation risks. Transport Costs: In Manila, LTFRB hearings begin on fare-hike petitions for jeepneys, buses and taxis, with increases sought from P2 to P13. Energy & Prices: IATA reported global air demand down 1.7% in June, warning renewed Middle East tensions will weigh on recovery via higher fuel costs.

US-Iran Tensions: The US State Department urged Americans across the Middle East to “consider departing” or be ready to leave on short notice, warning of “unforeseen escalation” as Trump said strikes on Iran are paused while a deal is pursued. Diplomacy vs. Pressure: Trump claims the emerging framework hinges on the “immediate, complete, and total” reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and an end to Iran’s nuclear threat, with Israel said to back the pause. Regional Security: US officials and allies warn the conflict could strain US ability to defend Israel, while Iran warns against “adventurous action.” Energy & Prices: The Hormuz standoff keeps oil and shipping risks elevated, with knock-on inflation fears and fuel-price pressure showing up in consumer watchdog promises. Humanitarian/Travel Fallout: Airlines and routes are already shifting, and embassies warn of flight cancellations and airspace closures. Local Economy: Saudi Arabia’s economy is described by the IMF as resilient, but the outlook depends on whether maritime traffic through Hormuz normalizes. Culture & Boycotts: Jerusalem Film Festival drew about 70,000 attendees despite a boycott campaign targeting Israeli cinema. Hospitality Tech: Dubai’s Future Hospitality Summit spotlights AI, cybersecurity, and sustainability as hospitality investment priorities. Aerospace/Defense: India unveiled an indigenous expendable turbojet engine aimed at cruise missiles and drones, underscoring the region’s fast-moving military tech race.

Gaza Peace Push: Trump-backed “Board of Peace” says Hamas has agreed to a roadmap for phased disarmament, with Israel’s withdrawal and an international stabilization force in the plan—but Verification & Sequencing: major hurdles remain over who checks weapons handover and how steps line up. Iran Escalation Fears: Trump threatens harder strikes as US embassies across the region issue “unexpected escalation” travel alerts, warning Americans to consider leaving amid threats to energy sites and possible attacks around the Strait of Hormuz. Regional Security Signals: Kuwait says it responded to Iranian drone attacks while Israel carries out strikes in Gaza, as defense alerts rise and markets react. Energy & Prices: Middle East turmoil keeps oil and fuel pressure high, with US gas prices jumping and shipping risks feeding volatility. Tech & Defense Economy: Israel’s defense-tech hiring is up 20% even as broader tech layoffs spread, with wages rising as AI reshapes staffing. Food Costs in the Region: Pakistan reports higher vegetable, fruit and fuel-linked prices, showing how conflict and transport disruptions hit everyday households. Qatar Sustainability Drive: Qatar highlights sustainability as a core pillar of national planning, citing strong environmental performance gains.

US-Iran Escalation: President Trump renewed threats of more strikes on Iran as Kuwait reported drone attacks and a tanker was hit near the Strait of Hormuz, while Israel carried out heavy strikes on Gaza after Hamas agreed to disarm. Regional Warning: An Iranian commander told neighboring states not to act as a “defensive shield” for Washington, warning they could “burn in the fire of war.” Energy Security: Cyprus’ push to become a gas exporter is being tested after a drone strike hit Egypt’s Damietta energy port, raising fears the conflict is spreading beyond core battle lines. Shipping & Oil Markets: Analysts point to China’s reduced oil purchases as a key factor in keeping prices from spiking further, even as Hormuz risks persist. Europe Migration Fallout: Spain moved to install a containment barrier at Ceuta after a surge that killed 67, and Italy suspended Schengen travel with Spain as tens of thousands returned to Morocco. Defense Industry: BAE Systems began production of Türkiye’s Eurofighter Typhoons under a £5.4bn deal, with deliveries starting in 2030. Travel Alerts: The US Embassy in Jordan urged Americans to consider leaving and prepare for flight disruptions amid “fluid” security risks.

Gaza Ceasefire Deadlock: Hamas says it agreed to disarm under a Trump-brokered roadmap that also calls for Israel’s gradual withdrawal, but Israel’s position on sequencing remains unclear and officials warn there will be no pullback without “genuine disarmament.” Regional Security Shift: Saudi Arabia joined US strikes on Iran-backed militias in Iraq for the first time since the Iran war began, signaling a major change from months of restraint. UN Warns on Maritime Crisis: UN chief António Guterres urged an end to fighting and full restoration of navigation rights in the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, warning trade and food and fertilizer prices are being hit. Lebanon-Israel Tensions: Lebanon’s president warned Israeli blasts near the UNESCO-listed Beaufort castle are a “direct threat” to a recent deal, as Israel says it destroyed Hezbollah tunnels. Energy Pressure on Markets: Oil and shipping disruptions tied to the Middle East conflict are keeping global inflation worries alive, while Egypt’s IMF reviews unlock about $1.8bn and highlight continued exposure to oil-price swings. Economy Watch: Philippines inflation is forecast to stay above target amid fuel and currency pressures, and Pakistan’s stock market rebounded on hopes of easing Middle East tensions.

IMF Watch: Egypt has secured about $1.8bn after the IMF completed two reviews, saying the economy stayed resilient despite Middle East spillovers, while warning debt and financing needs remain key risks. Gaza Ceasefire Diplomacy: Hamas says it has agreed to a phased roadmap for “complete disarmament” tied to Israel’s withdrawal, but Israel has not publicly signed off and implementation hinges on compliance. US-Iran Escalation Risk: Analysts warn the US-Iran conflict is at a critical point as strikes resume after brief pauses, with fears the fighting could widen across the region. Energy Shock & Markets: Chevron beat forecasts as Iran-war refinery margins surged; Shell also agreed to sell its Cyprus unit for up to $720m, while oil and fuel prices stay tightly linked to Middle East tensions. Regional Fallout on Daily Life: India told parliament 16 nationals have died since the conflict began, and Iraq’s farmlands face worsening salinity and drought. Humanitarian/Policy Response: Australia approved an ADB-backed $250m Cambodia loan to protect social spending from Middle East-driven price shocks, while Visa data shows Philippines consumer spending deteriorated as fuel costs rose.

U.S.-Iran War Spreads: A drone strike hit Egypt’s Damietta port near the Suez Canal, raising fears the Iran conflict is widening into the Mediterranean and threatening NATO’s southern flank. Shipping & Energy Shock: Oil prices steadied after renewed missile exchanges, but the Strait of Hormuz remains a flashpoint as Gulf states weigh new security steps and shipping risks. Regional Diplomacy: Gulf Arab states are reportedly turning to China for leverage over Iran to reopen key waterways, testing how far Beijing will press Tehran. Sanctions & IRGC Finance: The U.S. moved to sanction networks tied to the IRGC and Mahan Air, spotlighting how Iran’s military-linked financial reach supports the war effort. Local Impact on Business: In the Philippines, Metro Manila office demand forecasts were cut as the Middle East crisis delays corporate expansion, while banks there signal broadly stable lending standards despite the uncertainty. Heritage Under Pressure: UNESCO added six MENA sites to its World Heritage list, underscoring how conflict and looting are accelerating the need for stronger protection.

Middle East War Escalation: The U.S. and Iran resumed missile barrages as hopes for a quick resolution dimmed, with Jordan intercepting Iranian missiles again and Kuwait reporting a strike that killed a worker; the renewed fighting is also keeping energy prices jumpy. Strait of Hormuz: Oman-backed talks on voluntary ship fees are gaining traction as Iran rejects joint management, underscoring how the Hormuz route is becoming harder and costlier to rely on. Energy & Markets: Oil pushed higher again amid the renewed strikes, while the Bank of England held rates at 3.75% but warned inflation could rise later due to Middle East-linked energy volatility. Regional Politics: Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun is set to visit Ankara to clarify ties with Turkey, focusing on political and possible military/diplomatic cooperation. Gaza Humanitarian Impact: A Gaza professor says Israel’s siege blocked cancer treatment, highlighting the war’s direct toll on healthcare. Local Economy & Aid (Philippines, spillover relevance): President Marcos said rice assistance will be delivered via local government units to speed up support—an example of how conflict-linked shocks drive faster, local delivery models. Culture & Sports: The AFC called FIFA’s $20bn World Cup investor plan “totally unacceptable” over lack of consultation.