AGP Executive Report

US-Iran Escalation and Ceasefire Doubts: The U.S. and Iran traded strikes for a second day, with Iran saying the ceasefire is “meaningless” after attacks, while the Strait of Hormuz remains central to the crisis and global energy prices. Diplomacy via Pakistan: Pakistan’s PM Shehbaz Sharif says Washington and Tehran have agreed “final” wording for a peace framework, with mediators working on next steps to reopen Hormuz and ease sanctions—though details remain disputed. Global Economic Hit: The World Bank warns Middle East tensions are pushing global growth to a 2020s low, lifting energy and food costs and raising inflation risks if Hormuz disruptions worsen. Food Insecurity Fears: The World Food Programme says the Iran war could drive tens of millions into severe food insecurity, as trade and fuel costs ripple outward. Regional Security After War: Analysts say Gulf states will need new collective security plans once the conflict ends, given the risk of renewed targeting of bases and shipping routes. Pakistan Budget Under Pressure: Pakistan unveiled an 18.77tr rupee budget with higher defence spending and tax targets, as citizens complain inflation tied to the Middle East war is squeezing daily life. UAE Financial Inclusion Push: The CBUAE and World Bank signed a deal to expand financial inclusion, literacy, consumer protection, and dispute resolution. Egypt Power Deal: Korra Energi’s consortium won $58m contracts to build major transmission lines linking Gulf of Suez wind power to Egypt’s grid. Tourism Spotlight: Egypt’s new Grand Egyptian Museum is drawing millions and is being promoted as a top modern tourism draw.

US-Iran Escalation: The US and Iran traded strikes for a second day, with Iran saying it targeted American assets near the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf neighbors; Iran also called the ceasefire “meaningless” after US attacks, while an Indian official linked a US strike on an oil tanker to the deaths of three Indian mariners. Humanitarian Fallout: The World Food Programme warns the Middle East war is pushing tens of millions toward severe food insecurity as food and fuel costs rise and UN funding shortfalls force rationing. Diplomacy in Limbo: Trump touted a “great settlement” and a possible signing in Europe, but Iran’s foreign ministry says no final decision is made, even as Qatar and Pakistan mediate. Energy Shock & Prices: Strait-of-Hormuz disruption keeps pressure on global oil and inflation; in South Africa, fuel relief is expected in July but could be trimmed by the return of normal levies. Regional Economy & Investment: ADB plans $4bn support for Middle East crisis-hit nations; Dubai’s Emaar announced a $55bn masterplan; and Qatar and China deepened investment talks in Shanghai amid ongoing regional uncertainty.

US-Iran Escalation: The US and Iran traded strikes for a second straight day, with Washington threatening “VERY HARD” action and possible moves against Iran’s oil infrastructure, while Tehran said the ceasefire is effectively meaningless—raising fears of a wider regional war and fresh danger for shipping and Gulf neighbors. Energy Shock & Inflation: The Strait of Hormuz disruption continues to push up fuel and food costs, with the World Bank cutting global growth to 2.5% and warning of deeper slowdowns if energy stress spreads. Eurozone Tightening: The ECB became the first major central bank to hike rates in nearly three years, citing Middle East-driven energy inflation risks, even as it trimmed growth forecasts. Food Security Warning: The World Food Programme warns the Iran war could drive tens of millions into severe food insecurity, as higher prices and trade disruption hit vulnerable countries. Lebanon’s Iran Link: Lebanon’s leadership is openly challenging Iran’s role via Hezbollah, signaling a sharper political break with Tehran’s influence. Pakistan Economy: Pakistan reported 3.7% FY26 growth and expects remittances to top $41b, despite conflict and global uncertainty. World Cup Culture: Shakira and other stars unveiled what makes a World Cup anthem, as the tournament’s global spotlight grows alongside regional tensions.

Gulf Escalation: Iran and the US traded fresh strikes for a second straight night, with Iran claiming it fully closed the Strait of Hormuz while the US said shipping still moves—raising fresh fears for global oil flows. Humanitarian Fallout: The World Food Programme warned the Middle East crisis is starving millions, with 45 million at risk of severe food insecurity by June as food and fuel costs surge and aid faces funding cuts. Diplomacy Under Strain: UN chief António Guterres warned the April ceasefire is “more like a lesser fire” and could slide into “full war,” as mediation efforts continue. Market Pressure: Energy-price shocks are rippling beyond the region—Bangladesh officials warned higher oil costs could hit FY27 growth and inflation control, while European markets stayed cautious amid renewed Middle East tensions. Regional Economy Moves: Saudi Arabia lifted a nearly five-year Lebanese trade ban, and Qatar’s water strategy spotlighted desalination capacity as GCC states push diversification. Aviation Hit: Wizz Air said Iran-war disruptions drove a near-collapse in profits, while Brussels Airport reported passenger growth despite Middle East-linked flight suspensions.

Middle East War Escalation: Iran and the U.S. exchanged strikes again after Trump blamed Tehran for downing an Army helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran firing drones and missiles toward Bahrain and Kuwait and the U.S. hitting air-defense and radar sites; UN chief Guterres warned the region could slide back into “full war.” Nuclear Safety Alarm: The IAEA said a drone from Iraq struck a generator facility at the UAE’s Barakah plant, damaging power to Unit 3 and triggering emergency cooling—raising fresh fears for nuclear infrastructure. Energy Shock & Markets: Fresh attacks kept pressure on oil and inflation narratives, while economists tied price spikes to Middle East energy volatility and warned supply-chain strain could worsen. Humanitarian Fallout: The World Food Programme warned the Iran war is starving millions, pushing tens of millions toward severe food insecurity as trade and aid funding are squeezed. Water & Finance Deals: Morocco’s ONEE signed a €250m EBRD programme to modernize drinking-water production with efficiency upgrades; Mozambique also inked $450m in World Bank financing for social protection, resilience and rural water safety. Tech & Sharia Finance: Qatar’s Awqaf and Wahed MENA agreed to pilot an AI platform to analyze Sharia-compliant equities for endowment investment decisions. Regional Investment Push: Shanghai hosted Middle East-focused investment matchmaking, highlighting growing two-way capital and partnerships.

Lebanon Crisis: Israeli strikes on Tyre killed 11 people as evacuation warnings spread, deepening fears of a wider Lebanon–Hezbollah–Iran spiral. Gulf Escalation: Iran says it hit US-linked targets in Bahrain and Kuwait after US action near the Strait of Hormuz; the US reports intercepts and strikes, while mediation efforts continue. Humanitarian Fallout: The World Food Programme warns the Iran war is pushing tens of millions toward severe food insecurity, with aid squeezed by funding cuts. Shipping & Energy Risk: The IMO urged ships to avoid transiting Hormuz without credible security guarantees as attacks and AIS “hiding” reports raise costs and disruption fears. GCC Finance: S&P says GCC credit profiles remain resilient despite the prolonged US-Iran conflict, though corporate stress is more visible than sovereign risk. Oman Jobs Push: Oman’s Future Oman Fund signed deals worth over RO583m, targeting 2,302 jobs across renewables, manufacturing, healthcare and tourism. Regional Energy Talks: Egypt and Kuwait discussed expanding oil and gas cooperation, including Mediterranean and Red Sea opportunities. Markets Watch: Oil and equities remain sensitive to Middle East headlines, with inflation and rate decisions still tied to energy-price shocks.

U.S.-Iran Flashpoint: President Trump blamed Iran for shooting down a U.S. Army Apache near the Strait of Hormuz and said Washington “must” respond, as a drone boat rescued two pilots and the incident further strains a fragile ceasefire. Ceasefire Talks: Trump also said an Israel-Iran deal is in the “final stages,” with a possible agreement in “two or three days,” even as strikes around Lebanon keep the risk high. Humanitarian Fallout: The Iran war’s spillovers are worsening global hunger, with the World Food Programme warning tens of millions could face severe food insecurity as shipping and aid delivery costs rise. Gulf Economy Shock: Analysts and Gulf officials warned the Hormuz disruption is a whole-economy shock, hitting not just oil but food, fertiliser and industrial supply chains. Energy Transition Push: COP31 hosts Turkey urged countries to back a voluntary plan to lift electricity’s share of global energy demand to 35% by 2035, aiming to blunt fossil-fuel price shocks. Regional Trade & Logistics: Egypt and AD Ports began trial operations at the Safaga 2 terminal, part of a wider logistics corridor push to boost Upper Egypt’s trade capacity.

Israel-Iran Ceasefire Pause: After days of missile exchanges, Israel and Iran said they paused direct strikes again, but both warned they’ll retaliate if Lebanon-related attacks continue, keeping the truce fragile. Lebanon Evacuation Orders: Israel issued a forced evacuation order for Tyre and nearby areas, citing Hezbollah and preparing “forceful” action, as displacement and humanitarian pressure mount. US Pressure and Rift: Trump warned Netanyahu to avoid escalation and said a nuclear deal is near, while Israel’s leaders insist the war isn’t over—highlighting a widening US-Israel tension over strategy. Strait of Hormuz Fallout: With Hormuz still a flashpoint, the US disabled an Iran-bound tanker in the Gulf of Oman, and markets reacted to shifting hopes for reopening. EU Sanctions: The EU sanctioned IRGC-linked figures over alleged Hormuz navigation disruptions, escalating the diplomatic and economic squeeze. Regional Mediation: Pakistan’s PM urged restraint as Pakistani and Lebanese army chiefs met to support mediation efforts. Markets and Oil: Oil prices swung on the ceasefire headlines; euro zone bond yields steadied as investors watched the ECB. ICC Fallout: Israel demanded the ICC revoke Netanyahu’s arrest warrant after prosecutor Karim Khan was suspended amid misconduct allegations.

Iran–Israel Ceasefire Frays: Iran and Israel traded strikes again after a fragile pause, with Tehran saying it halted operations but warned it would resume if attacks on Lebanon continue, while Israel said the “fire on this front” is contained “for now” and vowed force if Iran strikes again. US Mediation Under Strain: Trump told Netanyahu to avoid escalation into a wider war, saying he warned Israel it could be left without a “green light,” as Washington pushes for talks. Gaza Humanitarian Hit: Israel suspended Gaza aid deliveries and closed crossings after Iran’s missile attack, deepening shortages amid competing claims about aid volumes. Lebanon Front Intensifies: Netanyahu said the war against Hezbollah is “not over,” as Israeli strikes reportedly hit areas including Tyre and Nabatieh, while Lebanese officials condemned damage to heritage sites. Regional Fallout on Trade and Energy: Oil prices gave back gains after Iran announced an end to its first wave, but markets stayed jittery; the EU also moved to sanction Iran-linked Hormuz navigation restrictions. Public Opinion and Politics: A Pew poll found Israel’s global image worsening sharply across many countries, while Iran’s hardline rhetoric and domestic political debate in Israel continue to shape the next moves.

Israel-Iran Escalation: Israel and Iran traded strikes again for the first time since an April ceasefire, with Israel hitting Iranian air-defense systems and a Mahshahr petrochemical site after Iran’s IRGC said it launched “Operation Nasr” targeting Nevatim and Tel Nof airbases. Lebanon Front: The flare-up follows Israeli strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs tied to Hezbollah, while Iran warns of wider retaliation if attacks on Lebanon continue. Red Sea Pressure: Yemen’s Houthis declared a complete ban on Israeli-linked maritime navigation in the Red Sea, treating any Israeli movement as a military target, as Israel said it intercepted missiles launched from Yemen. Travel & Visa Fallout: India issued an urgent advisory telling citizens to avoid Iran and leave immediately; Iran’s World Cup camp in Mexico is hit by a US visa row. Markets & Costs: Fresh Middle East tensions pushed Gulf stocks lower, while oil jumped and airlines warned profits could be halved as fuel and disruption costs rise. US Sanctions: The US Treasury sanctioned Iran’s Nobitex crypto exchange, alleging it supports IRGC-linked military transactions.

Iran-Gulf Escalation: Iran fired ballistic missiles and drones toward Bahrain and Kuwait, with Bahrain saying intercepts happened early Saturday after US strikes on Iranian surveillance sites; Tehran called it a ceasefire violation. Beirut Ceasefire Break: Israel struck Beirut’s southern suburbs (Dahiyeh) for the first time since a US-brokered truce, killing and wounding residents, while Iran warned of “decisive and painful” retaliation and threatened US-Israeli bases as “legitimate targets.” Missiles Hit Israel: Israel said missiles launched from Iran triggered sirens across parts of the country; it claimed interceptions but warned defenses aren’t “hermetic,” as schools were closed. US-Iran Deadlock: Trump reiterated he won’t unfreeze Iranian assets or lift sanctions before a deal, while Pakistan’s interior minister Mohsin Naqvi pushed mediation in Tehran. US Security Tensions: The Pentagon reportedly raised its counterintelligence threat level for Israel to “critical,” citing concerns about spying on US decision-making. Gaza Violence: An Israeli strike on a Gaza police station killed at least five, as fighting continued amid ceasefire accusations.

Strait of Hormuz Escalation: US CENTCOM says it shot down two Iranian one-way attack drones threatening international maritime traffic, then struck Iranian coastal radar sites on Goruk and Qeshm Island—while Iran retaliated with missiles at Bahrain and Kuwait, with Bahrain calling it “blatant aggression” and Kuwait warning of “dangerous escalation.” US-Iran Deal Pressure: As the US-Iran war hits its 100th day, Washington is weighing redirecting frozen Iranian assets to help Gulf reconstruction and repair damage, a move that could further strain a fragile ceasefire. Israel-Lebanon Front: Israeli strikes continued in Gaza and south Lebanon, including a reported strike on a Lebanese army vehicle that killed officers and a soldier; Hezbollah rejects ceasefire terms that would require disarmament first. Pentagon Spying Alarm: The Pentagon raised Israel’s counterintelligence threat level to “critical,” with US media reporting concerns about Israeli human espionage and technical collection aimed at US decision-making. World Cup Visa Row: Iran says some World Cup staff still lack US visas even as players receive entry clearance, while Iran’s federation and journalists’ groups warn the dispute is politicizing sport. France Sanctions Push: France is coordinating national sanctions on individuals linked to West Bank violence as EU-level action stalls. Gaza Civilian Toll: Gaza civil defence reports multiple deaths in strikes on displaced people’s areas amid ongoing ceasefire strain.

Gulf Missile Crisis: Bahrain and Kuwait condemned fresh Iranian ballistic missile and drone attacks, saying interceptors stopped the strikes and caused material damage but no casualties, while Iran accused the US of breaking the ceasefire after coastal radar strikes. US-Iran Ceasefire Tensions: Washington said it shot down drones and hit surveillance radar sites, as both sides trade claims of “violations” and warn escalation could derail talks. Lebanon Under Strain: Israel’s strike on a Lebanese Army vehicle killed two officers and a soldier, with Hezbollah blaming Beirut’s “concessions” and Lebanon’s president calling it a sovereignty violation, as ceasefire efforts remain fragile. Palestinian Fatalities: In the West Bank, a seven-month-old Palestinian baby was killed and parents wounded after troops fired at a vehicle near Hebron; Israel said it was investigating. Diplomacy Watch: Pakistan’s Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi met Iranian officials in Tehran amid renewed Iran-US talks and discussion of frozen assets. Europe Pressure on Israel: Ireland banned Israeli ministers Smotrich and Ben-Gvir and signaled settlement-linked trade restrictions. Regional Fallout: The UN warned the Hormuz closure is worsening food insecurity, with tens of millions at risk if the crisis drags on.

Gulf Escalation: The US says it shot down four Iranian drones toward the Strait of Hormuz and then struck Iranian coastal radar sites on Goruk and Qeshm Island, as tensions keep testing a fragile ceasefire. Missile Alerts in Kuwait & Bahrain: CENTCOM also reported Iran fired seven ballistic missiles toward Kuwait and Bahrain; six were intercepted and one failed to reach its target, with Bahrain condemning the “blatant aggression.” Ceasefire Deadlock & Lebanon Link: Iran’s foreign minister rejected Lebanese President Joseph Aoun’s claim Tehran uses Lebanon as a bargaining chip, while Iran-linked officials say any US deal hinges on a Lebanon ceasefire and release of $24bn in frozen assets. Nuclear Watch: The IAEA raised alarm that it can’t verify Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile location or status. West Bank Violence: Israeli forces killed a seven-month-old Palestinian baby in Tel Rumeida near Hebron, wounding his parents. Diplomacy & Sanctions: Ireland imposed entry bans on Israeli far-right ministers Ben-Gvir and Smotrich. Economy & Food Security: The UN’s WFP warned the Iran war is pushing millions toward acute hunger as energy and food prices stay high.

Lebanon-Iran Tensions: Lebanon’s president and prime minister sharply rebuked Iran after Tehran rejected the latest Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, calling the country a “bargaining chip” and warning that Lebanese civilians are paying the price as Israeli strikes hit southern villages. Ceasefire Under Strain: Despite U.S.-brokered talks and troop movements around Dibbine, Israel issued evacuation warnings for multiple areas and fighting continued, while Hezbollah rejected the deal and demanded conditions including Israeli withdrawal. UN Humanitarian Push: The UN more than doubled its Lebanon aid appeal to about $640m for six months, warning of a looming humanitarian catastrophe with a quarter of the population needing help. US-Iran Deadlock: Iran’s senior adviser told CNN negotiations are at a standstill unless the U.S. unfreezes $24bn in frozen assets, while U.S. lawmakers moved to curb Trump’s Iran war powers. War Powers Clash in Washington: The House passed a resolution limiting Trump’s ability to keep forces in an Iran conflict without congressional approval, as Congress also tightened oversight of Pentagon decisions. Markets and Energy: Oil prices eased on hopes for de-escalation, but the Strait of Hormuz remains a key risk factor for global shipping and inflation. World Cup Amid Conflict: Iran’s World Cup squad received U.S. visas just days before kickoff, despite ongoing tensions between Washington and Tehran.

Israel-Lebanon Escalation: Despite a US-brokered ceasefire framework, Hezbollah rejected the deal and demanded full Israeli withdrawal, while Israel continued strikes including near Tyre and around Jabal Amel Hospital; Israel also warned residents of three villages north of the Litani River to evacuate. Iran Nuclear Oversight: The UN nuclear watchdog (IAEA) said it couldn’t inspect key Iranian facilities hit by war and reported little change in its assessment, as enriched uranium stockpile details remain unclear. Gulf Tensions and Oil Routes: Four Iranian-flagged tankers reportedly slipped through the Strait of Hormuz with transponders off amid US blockade claims, while Iran and the US traded blame over attacks near Kuwait. US Politics and War Powers: In Washington, the House advanced steps to end Trump’s Iran war, adding pressure as lawmakers challenge his war powers. Humanitarian Fallout: Palestinian refugees in Lebanon face renewed displacement and hardship as fighting drags on, and Israel’s Supreme Court lifted a ban on Red Cross prison visits. Regional Economy: Turkey’s inflation edged up to 32.6% in May, and the OECD warned prolonged Middle East conflict could push economies toward recession.